The low oil price scenario initiated by OPEC , ie Saudi Arabia as U. S. production grew, may be short lived, if Yemen bombing by the Saudi Arab partners expands to combat Iran’s reach as it expands. For a good discussion of the dangers to Middle East oil supply see the attached link provided by Dan Steffens Prisident of Energy Prospective Group, Houston Texas.
The dangers of expanding war in the Middle East was one of the main dilemmas discussed in “The World Energy Dilemma.”
On Wednesday February 25, 2015 I presented the subject talk. to the Memorial United Methodist Church Men of Action breakfast.
When I published “The World Energy Dilemma” I thought was the issue was false then and after a couple more years with temperatures flat but CO2 in the atmosphere continuing to rise I am more convinced than ever it is a news event promoted by the scientists hoping to get more government contracts. The facts reveal that the earths temperature has been relatively flat for the last 10 to 15 years or longer and the models way over estimate a temperature rise. My charts for the talk are shown in the following PPTX file.
http://theworldenergydilemma.com/wp-content/uploads/Global-Warming-or-Climate-Change-Feb-20-2015.pptx A draft of my verbiage used in the talk is contained in the following PDF file. http://theworldenergydilemma.com/wp-content/uploads/Global_Warming_Talk_-Feb-25-2015.pdf
If you are a Methodist reading my blog I would appreciate you writing a note to your pastor and Bishop related to the topic of Global warming and that paragraph 160B should be removed from the Discipline of the Methodist church
The Saudi’s have embarked on a dangerous course to maintain market share Since they are still the center of Middleast oil, the largest reserves, the only country with surplus oil capacity and a big bank supply of cash. Other countries, ie Russia, Iran, Iraq and Venezuela are in a world of hurt, including the U. S. Oil producers particularly those with large debt.
Various forecasters are trying to make sense out of all of this. I go back to the book by Schumacker ” Small is Beautiful” where he states two truisms, 1. Man will appreciate most those who will say “Stop look and Listen” rather than those who say ” Look it up in the Forecast” 2.One needs to explore the future but remember you cannot curately predict the future because one cannot predict what’s in the minds of a few men who control it.” How true in regards to oil prices. Whether it is the new King in Saudi Arabia, some disgruntled member of royal family or a small terrorist group that does some dastardly deed.
I personally pray for peace in the Middle East for the good of all mankind but I worry that instability in the Mideast from what ever source is a cause for concern.
It is my opinion that the current low prices ie below $50.00/bbl cannot last through the year. Either instability in the Middle-East or natural decline plus demand growth will eliminate the supply surplus in less than a year. As reported by
Dan Steffens President of Exploration Prospective Group gasoline demand is up some 725,000 barrels/day in the USA alone in the last four weeks as a result of the lower price of gasoline. Normal Decline averages some 4.5 to 5 million barrels./day. Even if demand growth is normal, worldwide one million Bbls/day it won’t take long to use up the one to two million barrels/day surplus what ever it is at these low prices.
The following is link to a discussions concerning the current situation.
There is a lot of discussion concerning OPEC’S recent decision not to cut back oil production in view of the increaing production from U. S Shale and an apparent weaking in World oil demamd. That decision has led to a drop in U.S. prices to the mid $50.00′s. from an oil price of over $100.00 a bbl in less than 4 months,
This precipitous drop in oil pricce has caused many in energy Companies management to have sleepless nights and to completely revalue their long range plans.
For those companies that bought reserves in the last year thinking $100 oil was here to stay are in deep water and having many discussions with there bankers.
The last month there have been many willing to speculate and to talk about why OPEC and Saudi Arabia in particular did what they did. To some of us it was a reminder of what happened in 1986 when the Saudi’s raised there productiion from 3-4 million barrels per day to over 9 million barels per day and the price of oil fell sharply from $30.00/barrel to $10.00/barrel.
I think the attached interiew of the Saudi Oil Minster His Excellence Ali L Namie is worth reading for you to have a better insight as to the OPEC and the Saudi thinking on the subject. No body, not even the Saudi Minster can tell how long the oil price will stay low but based on world demand growth of of 1 million barrels per; day per year, natural decline of establishd production from 4-6% per year(ie 3.6 to 5.4million barrels per day). coupled with the suprise terrorist attack in the wrong place the time for the next price rise may be shorter than any of us would think.
Dr. Riese presentation to the Houston Geological Society was right on and I recommend you connecting to link below to view his presntation. This presntation was May 12, 2014
Four conclusions Dr. Riese makes are
1. ” All of the scary global warming scenarios are based on computer models.
2. None of the models work.
3. There is and has been no scientific consensus.
4. The data which come from our global experiment, the observations we have made, indicate thate the climate is evolvingand always has evolved continuouslyk, and the people have had nothing to do with the change. We ned to use this information to stop our regulators and legislators from taking steps and passing laws which will have no effect on the climate we enjoy and can only have disastrous impacts on are economy.”
Dr Riese earned his PHD from the university of New Mexico in 1980, his M. S. in geolgy from the same University in 1977 jkand his B. S. in geologyfrom the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology in 1973. He is Certified Professional Geologist, aa ccertifie Petroleum Geologist, and a Licensed and Registered Geologist in the states of Texas and South Carolina, respectively.
On Feb 20, 2014 Lou Powers author of “The World Energy” Dilemma spoke to some 110 gathered at the Plaza Club in down Town San Antonio. The luncheon was well attended and raised money for the San Antonio Book Foundation
Following Powers’ talk, Luke Fletcher, senior vice president of marketing and optimization at Dallas-based Energy Transfer Partners LP, said midstream infrastructure, which includes pipelines, has charted major growth in Texas, including the Eagle Ford Shale.
The following link takes you to the San Antonio Express writeup of this event:
Lou Powers author of The World Energy Dilemma will be speaking at a luncheon sponsored by the San Antonio Public Library Foundation on 20th of February at 11:30 AM on the 21st floor of the Frost Bank Tower, Plaza Club. In addition Luke Fletcher will be Vice President of Energy Transfer Partners will be speaking on importance of Midstream Infrastructure.
Cost of the meal is $50.00 and reservations can be made by calling 210 227 4191
Powers will present an update of the dilemmas he sees, the current industry outlook, and the direction we are headed. Copies of his book will be available at the presentation. PennWell published the book in the summer of 2112.
Powers has some 50+ years of industry experience, 22 years with Humble-Exxon affiliates, including two years as Chief Petroleum Engineer for Aramco, Saudi Arabia, and over 30 years as an independent consultant working for independents, major, and royalty owners.
Speaking at the NAPE Business Conferance in Houston Texas on February 5, former Secretary Salazar came out full bore for the XL pipeline and touting fracturing as an enviourmentally safe way to unleash the billions of barrels of shale oil and shale gas.
His remarks were carried in the February 6th edition of the Houston chronicle and are reported in the FuelFix article that follows.
U.S. crude production rose to the highest level in a quarter century, as
the shale drilling boom in states such as Texas and North Dakota cut the need
for foreign oil. The United States pumped 8.075 million barrels a day in the week ending Dec. 6, the most since October 1988. The turn around would have not been possible with out new technology from horizontal drilling and large multiple fracking of the shale zones.
The U. Production is some 30% higher or around 2 million barrels per day higher than it would have been if fracking of the tight shale beds had not been allowed. The U S EIA just forecast in the future this number, ie oil from tight shale beds to grow to over 4.5 million bbls per day by 2020., that is if fracking of horizontal wells to deplete the shale beds continues.
The Mexican Congress’ approval of a bill to end a 75-year state oil
monopoly is expected to generate billions in additional foreign investment a
year. JP Morgan Chase puts the number at up to $15 billion annually, while
Capistran says the overhaul could bring an additional $20 billion foreign
direct investment as soon as 2015. This could mean the end of the decline in Mexican oil production. See attached Bloomberg Report